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AP Decision Notes: What to expect in New Hampshire’s state primary

New Hampshire's state primary is set to take place, featuring two former Republican U.S. Senators, John Sununu and Scott Brown, competing for a seat they have both previously sought with varying results. In the Democratic primary for the same U.S. Senate seat, four-term Congressman Chris Pappas faces a growing challenge from a democratic socialist candidate, Karishma Manzur. The race to replace retiring two-term Democratic U.S. Senator Jeanne Shaheen is one of several across the country that co

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New Hampshire's state primary is set to take place, featuring two former Republican U.S. Senators, John Sununu and Scott Brown, competing for a seat they have both previously sought with varying results. In the Democratic primary for the same U.S. Senate seat, four-term Congressman Chris Pappas faces a growing challenge from a democratic socialist candidate, Karishma Manzur.

The race to replace retiring two-term Democratic U.S. Senator Jeanne Shaheen is one of several across the country that could influence control of the U.S. Senate for the latter half of President Donald Trump's final term. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to regain control, making New Hampshire a crucial battleground.

Sununu previously won the seat in 2002 but was ousted by Shaheen in 2008 after one term. Brown was elected in Massachusetts in 2010 but lost his bid for a full term in 2012. He later moved to New Hampshire and narrowly lost to Shaheen in 2014. Both candidates have a complex relationship with Trump, who is currently backing Sununu despite past conflicts with the Sununu family.

Sununu has significantly out-fundraised Brown, with $4.1 million to Brown's $2.2 million, although Brown has spent more of his funds. Pappas, meanwhile, has raised over $15 million and has strong support from the state's Democratic establishment, including endorsements from prominent figures such as former Vice President Kamala Harris.

Polling indicates that while Pappas leads, Manzur is gaining momentum. The outcome of this primary could mark a significant moment for progressive candidates within the Democratic Party. Voter registration in New Hampshire stands at approximately 899,000, with a mix of party affiliations, and the primary will determine nominees for various state offices, including the U.S. Senate and House.